Hot Houston summer and cold winter set new electricity records
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US Electricity Demand 2018-2050 projects slower growth as energy consumption, power generation, air conditioning, and electric heating shift with efficiency standards, commercial floor space, industrial load, and household growth across the forecast horizon.
How It All Fits Together
A forecast of US power use across homes, commercial space, industrial load, and efficiency trends from 2018 to 2050.
2018 generation rose 4% to 4,178 million MWh, a new peak on record gas output.
Household use up 6% in 2018; 87% have AC, 35% use electric heat.
Long-run electricity demand growth slows to 0.4% per year through 2050.
Households grow 0.7%/yr; commercial floor space grows 1%/yr.
Sales lag: commercial +0.5%/yr; industrial sales fell 3% in 2018.
Last year's Houston cold winter and hot summer drove power use to record levels, especially among households that rely on electricity for air conditioning during extreme weather conditions.
Electricity generation increased 4 per cent nationwide in 2018 and produced 4,178 million megawatt hours, driven in part by record natural gas generation across the U.S., surpassing the previous peak of 4,157 megawatt hours set in 2007, the Energy Department reported.
U.S. households bought 6 percent more electricity in 2018 than they did the previous year, despite longer-term declines in national consumption, reflecting the fact 87 percent of households cool their homes with air conditioning and 35 percent use electricity for heating.
Electricity sales to the commercial sector increased 2 percent in 2018 compared to the previous year while the industrial sector bought 3 percent less last year.
Going forward, the Energy Department forecasts that electricity consumption will grow at a slower pace than in recent decades, aligning with falling sales projections as technology improves and energy efficiency standards moderate consumption.
The economy and population growth are primary drivers of demand and the government predicts the number of households will grow at 0.7 percent per year from now until 2050 but electricity demand will grow only by 0.4 percent annually.
Likewise, commercial floor space is expected to increase 1 percent per year from now until 2050 but electricity sales will increase only by half that amount.
Globally, surging electricity demand is putting power systems under strain, providing context for these domestic trends.
