Electricity sales in the U.S. actually dropped over the past 7 years
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US Electricity Sales Decline amid population growth and GDP gains, as DOE links reduced per capita consumption to energy efficiency, warmer winters, appliances, and bulbs, while hotter summers and rising AC demand may offset savings.
Understanding the Story
US electricity sales fell 3% since 2010 despite population and GDP growth, driven by efficiency gains and warmer winters.
DOE: Electricity sales fell 3% since 2010 despite 5.8% population growth.
Residential per capita sales down 7%; real bills rose 5% nationwide in 2022.
Efficiency gains and CFL/efficient appliances correlate with lower demand.
Warmer winters cut heating; hotter summers may raise A/C loads and costs.
Since 2010, the United States has grown by 17 million people, and the gross domestic product (GDP) has increased by $3.6 trillion. Yet in that same time span, electricity sales in the United States actually declined by 3%, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), even as electricity prices rose at a 41-year pace nationwide.
The U.S. decline in electricity sales is remarkable given that the U.S. population increased by 5.8% in that same time span. This means that per capita electricity use fell even more than that; indeed, the Department of Energy pegs residential electricity sales per capita as having declined by 7%, even as inflation-adjusted residential bills rose 5% in 2022 nationwide.
There are likely multiple reasons for this decline in electricity sales. Department of Energy analysts suggest that, at least in part, it is due to increased adoption of energy-efficient appliances and bulbs, like compact fluorescents. Indeed, the DOE notes that there is a correlation between consumer spending on “energy efficiency” and a reduction in per capita electricity sales, while utilities invest more in delivery infrastructure to modernize the grid.
Yet the DOE also notes that states with a greater increase in warm weather days had a corresponding decrease in electricity sales, as milder weather can reduce power demand across years. In southern states, the effect was most dramatic: for instance, from 2010 to 2016, Florida had a 56% decrease in cold weather days that would require heating and as a result, saw a 9% decrease in per capita electricity sales.
The moral is that warm winters save on electricity. But if global temperatures continue to rise, and summers become hotter, too, this decrease in winter heating spending may be offset by the increased need to run air conditioning in the summer, and given how electricity and natural gas prices interact, overall energy costs could shift. Indeed, it takes far more energy to cool a room than it does to heat it, for reasons related to the basic laws of thermodynamics.
